Will 2024 Be A Good Year? 10 Key Financial Predictions
After reading dozens of blog posts and articles, and listening to dozens of interviews around the top “Financial Predictions For 2024”, I triangulated and filtered the findings down to the essential few predictions I believe will shape the financial year 2024.
Here we go:
1/ Increased Infighting
Following the adage the “biggest enemy lies within“, I predict that we will see a lot of drama originating from within organizations, companies, and countries.
What we have seen around the drama of OpenAI and Sam Altman is just a teaser for what’s to come.
In particular, I believe this will be noticeable in countries! A few examples:
- Germany’s political parties are tearing themselves apart, fighting over energy, immigration, military support, etc.
- The political parties in the U.S. will see a lot of infighting
- The Arabic world will see an increased amount of infighting in response to the Israel/Gaza conflict and others
2/ Major Cyberattacks
I believe future wars will happen less as kinetic wars on the battlefield with tanks and soldiers, and more and more in cyberspace.
I predict that we will witness the first major cyberattack, either from a nation-state or a private organization taking it upon them to take matters into their own hands.
Investment Idea: Cyber security stocks such as Cisco (CSCO), or other good IT Dividend Stocks
3/ Banking Crisis 2.0
I predict we’ll see a second major banking crisis in 2024, mainly due to problems in the commercial real estate sector.
The banks have not solved any of their issues, and the collapse of Credit Suisse, Silicon Valley, First Republic and Signature Bank are just harbinger of whats to come.
Check out this excellent chart from the New York Times, showing what value was destroyed in 2023. My prediction is we will see at least the same or even worse bank failures in 2024!
This is also one of the key topics in my well-received post about financial astrology and the transition to the Age of Air.
Investment Idea: Invest in the best Asian bank stocks such as DBS (DBSDY).
4/ China Will Have A Good 2024
I predict that China is now through the worst and things will normalize. It will try to smoothen the relationship with the U.S., bring inflation under control, and see its real estate sector rebuild and become stronger again.
I bet the Chinese stock market will do relatively well in 2024.
Investment Idea: I own and like Alibaba (BABA), Tencent (TCEHY), and Asia’s best REIT, Link REIT (LKREF).
5/ Uranium Renaissance
I predict we will see a renaissance in Uranium and the way people think about it. Renewable energy is of the utmost importance, but it’s proven time and time again that for the next 2-3 decades our energy grids are not ready yet to only rely on wind, solar, geo, and hydropower.
We need a carbon-free baseload power – and burning coal, gas, or oil is not the answer. We can already see many countries pivoting and becoming more pro-nuclear. A trend I believe will strengthen and accelerate!
Invest Idea: Any of the stocks on my Uranium portfolio
6/ Resurgence of Travel
In times like ours, where it is a lot cheaper to rent than to finance a home, I agree with Scott Galloway’s prediction that we will see a resurgence of travel and experience-based vacations.
My financial prediction is that the available disposable income people have by not buying a too expensive home will find its way to ‘experiences’. Beneficiaries will be companies providing such experiences.
7/ The Rise of Luxury
I predict that scarce items, such as ultra-high luxury products, will do well, because in the noisy world we live in, people want to own something they know is ultra-scarce, making them feel unique and special.
This applies to the physical world (fashion, handbags, accessories, ..), but also to the digital world!
8/ First AI Killer App
Another financial prediction is that we will see the first AI killer app, taking the market by storm.
If I had to pick one space, it would be one of the following sectors:
- generative AI
- personal AI
- financial AI
- niche AI
I believe it will be a privately-owned, VC-backed startup that will create a product that once again will reach 1 Mio customer in no time.
Investment Idea: Finding and picking the right “gold mine” is too difficult. Rather invest in AI infrastructure such as Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), or Alphabet (GOOGL).
9/ Acceleration of Remote Work Trends
The pandemic with its “Great Resignation” and “Work From Home” trends has reshaped the way we work, and I foresee a continued acceleration of remote work trends in 2024.
Companies will increasingly adopt flexible work arrangements, and employees will demand more autonomy in choosing their work environment.
Investment Idea: Companies providing remote work solutions, cloud services, and reliable connectivity are likely to experience increased demand. Consider investing in established players like Zoom (ZM) or Microsoft (MSFT).
10/ Sustainable Investing Gains Further Momentum
As environmental concerns heighten, I predict an increased significant surge in interest and investments in profitable sustainable projects.
Both individual and institutional investors will increasingly prioritize companies with strong environmental, social, and governance (ESG) practices.
Investment Idea: With a growing focus on sustainability, investments in companies like my favorite renewable energy stock, Brookfield Renewable (BEP) or NextEra Energy (NEE), may finally see again positive returns. Also, checkpoint 5 above and my reasoning for Uranium stocks.
As we step into 2024, the financial terrain promises both challenges and opportunities.
From navigating geopolitical tensions to embracing sustainable investments, staying informed and adaptable will be key in shaping a resilient and prosperous financial journey in the year ahead.
📘 Read Also
What are the top 10 predictions for 2024?
The following are the top 10 financial predictions for 2024:
1. Increased Infighting among states, companies organisations
2. Major Cyberattacks
3. Banking Crisis 2.0
4. China Will Have A Good 2024
5. Uranium Renaissance
6. Resurgence of Travel
7. The Rise of Luxury
8. First AI Killer App
9. Acceleration of Remote Work Trends
10. Sustainable Investing Gains Further Momentum
How to predict financial projections?
Predicting financial projections involves assessing historical data, market trends, and industry and general market dynamics. Utilize financial modeling, economic analyses, and expert insights. Consider factors like revenue growth, expenses, and market conditions. Regularly review and adjust projections based on changing circumstances.
How financial predictions are done?
Financial predictions involve the analyzing of historical data, market trends, economic indicators, geopolitical factors, and certain beliefs about the future. You can use various models and tools to make informed projections, but predictions inherently carry uncertainties and are highly subjective. Diversifying information sources and staying updated aid greatly in making more educated financial decisions.
Who predicted the 2008 financial crisis?
Investor Michael Blurry is famous for having not only predicted but also financially benefited from the 2008 housing market collapse. Subsequently, a move was made, called The Big Short.
Can you predict a financial crisis?
Predicting a financial crisis is challenging due to complex factors. Warning signs include economic imbalances, market volatility, and geopolitical tensions. Monitoring indicators like debt levels and market behavior helps, but forecasting crises with certainty is difficult. However, much like a pristine Chinese vase untouched at the edge of a table during a children’s birthday party, circumstances can persist unchanged for years, only for an unexpected turn to occur from any direction.